The Short Version
The claim reflects a likely tendency but overstates it as a certainty. Federal Reserve and Yale Budget Lab research confirms tariff costs were largely passed to consumers, and refunds legally flow to importers of record — making consumer price cuts unlikely in many cases. However, the blanket assertion that companies "will retain" refunds ignores that some firms (e.g., FedEx) have pledged to return them, contract law may compel pass-through in business relationships, and competitive dynamics vary by industry. The reality is heterogeneous, not universal.