The Short Version
The claim captures a real concern — trade fragmentation and rising tariffs do create growth headwinds for Western economies, as the IMF and OECD have documented. However, it overstates the evidence. The IMF's January 2026 outlook projects tariff drag waning and Western growth remaining resilient. Multiple institutions (ECB, J.P. Morgan, World Bank) find globalization is reconfiguring, not reversing. Academic evidence on deglobalization's growth effects is mixed. The claim treats a plausible risk as an established significant long-term threat, which the evidence does not yet support.