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Negative S&P 500 returns become rarer as holding periods lengthen.

The Claim

Historical rolling-return data for the S&P 500 Index show negative returns in 46% of one-day periods, 38% of one-month periods, 25% of one-year periods, 16% of three-year periods, 10% of five-year periods, 6% of 10-year periods, 2% of 15-year periods, and 0% of 20-year periods.

Verified by Lenz ·

The Short Version

The historical pattern is well supported: negative S&P 500 rolling returns became substantially less frequent as holding periods lengthened, and most listed percentages are close to published estimates. However, results vary with the sample period and return methodology, and several sources report 0%, rather than 2%, for 15-year periods. The claim is therefore broadly accurate but overly precise.

Caveats

  • The 15-year figure is disputed; several cited analyses report 0% negative periods rather than 2%.
  • Percentages depend on the date range, use of price or total returns, sampling frequency, and treatment of overlapping windows.
  • Historical frequencies describe past observations and do not guarantee nonnegative long-term returns in the future.

The Receipts

  1. Longer Horizons Look Better for Stocks | Dimensional

    dimensional.com

  2. Probability of Losing Money in the Stock Market: 100 Year Historical Odds for the S&P 500 – QuantifiedStrategies.com

    quantifiedstrategies.com

  3. “HysteresisandDurationDependenceinUSFinancialCrises”,RuiMenezes andSoniaBentes

    arxiv.org

  4. HISTORICAL FREQUENCY OF POSITIVE STOCK RETURNS

    rationalwalk.com

  5. Probability of Negative Returns and Time Horizon

    insights.rpag.com

  6. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): Rolling Returns

    lazyportfolioetf.com

  7. The Best And Worst Rolling Index Returns 1973-2016

    thebalancemoney.com

  8. Taking the Long-Term View

    ta-retirement.com

  9. S&P 500 Historical Returns — 98 Years of Data | FinClaro

    finclaro.app

  10. How has the S&P 500 historically performed over 10-year ...

    winthropwealth.com

+ 8 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

S&P 500