A published Bayesian analysis estimates the probability that God exists.

Verified by Lenz · May 27, 2026

The Short Version

Published sources show that Stephen D. Unwin's book applies Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that God exists, commonly reported as 67%. That is enough to satisfy the claim. The evidence supports the existence of such a publication, not the correctness or acceptance of its reasoning.

Caveats

This supports only that a published Bayesian estimate exists; it does not validate the estimate itself.
The result depends heavily on subjective assumptions and prior probabilities, which critics dispute.
Some discussions conflate Unwin's explicit numerical estimate with other writers' broader Bayesian-style arguments about God.

The Receipts

The Existence of God (book)
WikipediaJan 1, 2004
The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth
Oxford University Press (publisher description via major bookseller)Sep 2, 2004
What are the odds that God exists?
The GuardianNov 13, 2004
Bayes, God, and the Multiverse
University of Oxford (users.ox.ac.uk)Jan 1, 2012
Bayesian inference and religious belief
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science (Columbia University)Oct 7, 2018
Richard Swinburne's Inductive Argument for the Existence of God
DiVA portal
What is Bayes's theorem, and how can it be used to assign probabilities to questions such as the existence of God?
Scientific AmericanMar 13, 2003
A Critical Analysis of Richard Swinburne's Use of Prior Probability in His Theistic Arguments
PhilArchiveJan 1, 2014
Physicist puts odds on the existence of God
BBC NewsOct 1, 2014
Theology FAIL: Richard Swinburne proves the resurrection
Faith & Theology (blog)Dec 29, 2009

+ 14 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

Bayesian AnalysisGod