Friday, Sep 11, 2026 The claims desk. Receipts included. POWERED BY LENZ ↗
IsThis

Stephen D. Unwin used Bayes’ theorem in a published book to estimate God’s existence probability at about 67%.

The Claim

A published Bayesian analysis estimates the probability that God exists.

Verified by Lenz ·

The Short Version

Published sources show that Stephen D. Unwin's book applies Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that God exists, commonly reported as 67%. That is enough to satisfy the claim. The evidence supports the existence of such a publication, not the correctness or acceptance of its reasoning.

Caveats

  • This supports only that a published Bayesian estimate exists; it does not validate the estimate itself.
  • The result depends heavily on subjective assumptions and prior probabilities, which critics dispute.
  • Some discussions conflate Unwin's explicit numerical estimate with other writers' broader Bayesian-style arguments about God.

The Receipts

  1. The Existence of God (book)

    Wikipedia

  2. The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth

    Oxford University Press (publisher description via major bookseller)

  3. What are the odds that God exists?

    The Guardian

  4. Bayes, God, and the Multiverse

    University of Oxford (users.ox.ac.uk)

  5. Bayesian inference and religious belief

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science (Columbia University)

  6. Richard Swinburne's Inductive Argument for the Existence of God

    DiVA portal

  7. What is Bayes's theorem, and how can it be used to assign probabilities to questions such as the existence of God?

    Scientific American

  8. A Critical Analysis of Richard Swinburne's Use of Prior Probability in His Theistic Arguments

    PhilArchive

  9. Physicist puts odds on the existence of God

    BBC News

  10. Theology FAIL: Richard Swinburne proves the resurrection

    Faith & Theology (blog)

+ 14 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

Bayesian AnalysisGod