Friday, Jul 24, 2026 The claims desk. Receipts included. POWERED BY LENZ
IsThis

HEALTH

The Claim

Adolescents aged 16–18 are still developing the capacity for systematic deliberative reasoning, which makes them disproportionately susceptible to cognitive heuristics and biases including the gambler's fallacy, the illusion of control in games of chance, and optimism bias.

The Short Version

The evidence supports a narrower, context-specific claim rather than the broad one presented. Adolescents aged 16–18 often have adult-like basic reasoning ability, but their psychosocial maturity and self-control are still developing, especially in emotionally charged or reward-driven situations. Research does support gambling-related distortions such as the gambler’s fallacy and illusion of control in adolescents, but the claim overstates the cause, the breadth, and the support for optimism bias.

Caveats

  • The claim conflates adult-like 'cold' reasoning at ages 16–18 with still-maturing self-regulation in 'hot' or emotionally charged contexts.
  • Evidence for gambler's fallacy and illusion of control in adolescent gambling does not by itself prove broad disproportionate susceptibility versus adults across settings.
  • The inclusion of optimism bias is not well substantiated by the cited evidence and weakens the overall claim.

The Receipts

  1. Gambling-Related Cognitive Distortions Among Adolescents

    Springer

  2. Adolescents' Cognitive Capacity Reaches Adult Levels Prior to Their Psychosocial Maturity

    PubMed Central

  3. A dual-process model of adolescent development: implications for decision making, reasoning, and identity.

    PubMed

  4. Gambling-Related Distortions and Problem Gambling in Adolescents

    PubMed Central

  5. The neuroscience of adolescent decision-making

    National Institutes of Health (PMC)

  6. Adolescent Brain Development and Progressive Legal Regulation

    Frontiers in Psychology

  7. Science on Adolescent Development

    Equal Justice Initiative

  8. Judgment and decision making in adolescence

    Bryn Mawr College repository

  9. Cognitive Development - Burnett et al. 2010

    USC Dornsife

  10. Cognitive Development in the Teen Years

    URMC Rochester Medical Center

+ 19 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

Adolescents Aged 16–18Daniel KahnemanFrank FarleyGambler's FallacyIllusion Of ControlOptimism Bias

More Fact Checks