Friday, Jul 24, 2026 The claims desk. Receipts included. POWERED BY LENZ ↗
IsThis

SCIENCE

The Claim

Standardized testing predicts future academic success more accurately than other assessment methods.

Verified by Lenz ·

The Short Version

This claim significantly overstates the evidence. Standardized tests like the SAT and ACT do predict college GPA and add value beyond high-school grades in some models. However, multiple large-scale, peer-reviewed studies find that high-school GPA is a stronger predictor of longer-term outcomes like college graduation. The research consensus is that combining test scores with other measures yields the best predictions — not that tests alone are superior. The claim's absolute framing ("more accurately than other assessment methods") is not supported by the literature.

Caveats

  • The claim treats 'academic success' as a single concept, but tests predict college GPA better in some studies while high-school GPA better predicts graduation and four-year outcomes — the answer depends on which metric you use.
  • Several sources supporting the claim come from test-makers (e.g., College Board) or opinion pieces rather than independent peer-reviewed research, which may overstate test superiority.
  • The strongest research consensus recommends combining standardized tests with high-school GPA and other measures for the most accurate predictions, rather than relying on any single method.

The Receipts

  1. Predictive validity of admission tests and educational attainment on ...

    PubMed Central (PMC)

  2. The ACT Predicts Academic Performance—But Why? - PMC

    PubMed Central (PMC)

  3. SAT® Score Relationships with College GPA: First-Year through Fourth-Year Cumulative GPA

    College Board

  4. Validity Of High-School Grades In Predicting Student Success ...

    Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley

  5. The Predictive Power of Standardized Tests - Education Next

    Education Next

  6. Predictive Validity of High School GPA and ACT Composite Score on Graduating College GPA - ERIC

    ERIC

  7. A 'compensatory selection' effect with standardized tests: Lack of correlation between test scores and success is evidence that test scores are predictive of success - PMC

    PMC

  8. Predicting Success: An Examination of the Predictive Validity of a Measure of Motivational-Developmental Dimensions in College Admissions - PMC

    PMC

  9. Test scores don't stack up to GPAs in predicting college success - University of Chicago

    University of Chicago Consortium on School Research

  10. SAT® Score Relationships with College GPA:

    College Board Research

+ 11 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

other assessment methodsstandardized testing