Friday, Jul 24, 2026 The claims desk. Receipts included. POWERED BY LENZ ↗
IsThis

FINANCE

The Claim

Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein (2019) found that the 2018 United States tariffs raised United States import prices nearly one-for-one.

Verified by Lenz ·

The Short Version

The claim accurately reflects the paper’s main result: the 2018 tariffs were passed through almost fully into the prices paid by U.S. importers. The key caveat is that this refers to tariff-inclusive import prices, not foreign exporters raising their pre-tariff prices one-for-one. That missing definition makes the wording somewhat imprecise, but not materially wrong.

Caveats

  • The finding is about tariff-inclusive prices paid by U.S. importers; pre-tariff border/export prices reportedly changed little.
  • Without that definition, readers could misread the result as foreign exporters raising their own prices, which is not what the paper primarily shows.
  • The 2019 analysis focused on the 2018 trade-war period; longer-run adjustments such as sourcing changes were addressed in later work.

The Receipts

  1. The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare

    American Economic Association

  2. Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

    American Economic Association

  3. Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

    NBER

  4. The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare

    NBER

  5. Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

    National Bureau of Economic Research

  6. Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?

    Liberty Street Economics

  7. Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected Economy

    Federal Reserve

  8. The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare

    Princeton University Economics

  9. The price tag for the trade wars

    American Economic Association

  10. The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare

    David Weinstein (GitHub Pages)

+ 12 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

David WeinsteinMary AmitiStephen J. ReddingUnited States

More Fact Checks