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Both studies found near-complete 2018 tariff pass-through into U.S. prices.

The Claim

The academic studies Fajgelbaum et al. (2020) and Amiti et al. (2019) concluded that the costs of tariffs are borne primarily by domestic consumers and importers.

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The Short Version

The named studies did characterize tariff costs as falling mainly on U.S. importers and consumers. Both Amiti et al. (2019) and Fajgelbaum et al. (2020) reported near-complete pass-through of the 2018 tariffs into U.S. prices, meaning foreign exporters did not absorb most of the burden. Additional findings about producer gains or retaliation do not negate that core conclusion.

Caveats

  • These findings are specific to the 2018 U.S. tariff waves and should not be generalized automatically to all tariffs or later periods.
  • Amiti et al. often said tariffs were borne "almost entirely," so the result was not mathematically absolute in every channel.
  • The studies also identified other important effects, including some protection for domestic producers and retaliatory costs for U.S. exporters.

The Receipts

  1. The Return to Protectionism

    The Quarterly Journal of Economics

  2. The Return of Protectionism

    The Quarterly Journal of Economics (PDF)

  3. The Impact of Import Tariffs on U.S. Domestic Prices

    Liberty Street Economics (New York Fed)

  4. The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare

    American Economic Association (AEA)

  5. Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

    NBER

  6. The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare

    NBER

  7. Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time

    Federal Reserve Board

  8. THE RETURN TO PROTECTIONISM

    NBER Working Paper Series

  9. The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare

    Gwern.net (hosting Amiti et al. 2019)

  10. Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

    American Economic Association (AEA Papers and Proceedings)

+ 11 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

Amiti Et Al. (2019)Fajgelbaum Et Al. (2020)

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