The academic studies Fajgelbaum et al. (2020) and Amiti et al. (2019) concluded that the costs of tariffs are borne primarily by domestic consumers and importers.
NOT BSTOTAL BS
NOT BS — Verdict: True
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The Short Version
The named studies did characterize tariff costs as falling mainly on U.S. importers and consumers. Both Amiti et al. (2019) and Fajgelbaum et al. (2020) reported near-complete pass-through of the 2018 tariffs into U.S. prices, meaning foreign exporters did not absorb most of the burden. Additional findings about producer gains or retaliation do not negate that core conclusion.
Caveats
These findings are specific to the 2018 U.S. tariff waves and should not be generalized automatically to all tariffs or later periods.
Amiti et al. often said tariffs were borne "almost entirely," so the result was not mathematically absolute in every channel.
The studies also identified other important effects, including some protection for domestic producers and retaliatory costs for U.S. exporters.