The Short Version
The claim that Jim Simons' investment success was primarily due to luck is not supported by the evidence. The academic studies cited analyze hedge funds broadly and never examined Renaissance Technologies or the Medallion Fund specifically. Applying population-level luck statistics to one individual is a logical fallacy. Multiple detailed sources describe Simons' decades-long, systematic quantitative strategy with consistent, crisis-resistant returns — a pattern far more consistent with skill than luck. A generic life quote about "good fortune" does not constitute evidence that Medallion's returns were luck-driven.