Friday, Jul 24, 2026 The claims desk. Receipts included. POWERED BY LENZ
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SCIENCE

The Claim

Current atmospheric CO2 levels are not unprecedented when compared to levels found throughout Earth's full geological record.

The Short Version

The claim is technically accurate: multiple peer-reviewed studies confirm CO2 exceeded 1,000–2,000 ppm during earlier geological periods (e.g., Mesozoic, Eocene), well above today's ~422 ppm. However, the claim omits critical context. Current CO2 is the highest in at least 14 million years, the rate of increase is roughly 100 times faster than any known natural rise, and deep-time CO2 estimates carry large uncertainties (±500 ppm). The literal statement is defensible, but its framing can create a misleading impression that today's levels are unremarkable.

Caveats

  • Current CO2 levels (~422 ppm) are unprecedented in the last 14–23 million years — the timeframe relevant to modern ecosystems, species, and climate systems. The claim's 'full geological record' framing obscures this.
  • The rate of CO2 increase today is approximately 100 times faster than any previous natural rise, a critical distinction the claim entirely ignores by focusing only on absolute levels.
  • Deep-time CO2 estimates used to support the 'not unprecedented' framing carry error bars exceeding ±500 ppm, making precise comparisons against today's accurately measured levels scientifically tenuous.

The Receipts

  1. Climate change: atmospheric carbon dioxide

    NOAA Climate.gov

  2. Trends in CO2 - Global Monitoring Laboratory - NOAA.gov

    NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

  3. Trends in CO2 - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

    NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

  4. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100 - PMC

    PubMed Central (PMC)

  5. Current CO2 Growth Rate Fastest in 50,000 Years: Study | Earth.Org

    Earth.Org

  6. A New 66 Million-Year History of Carbon Dioxide Offers Little Comfort for Today

    Columbia University (Earth Institute)

  7. Geoscientists map changes in atmospheric CO2 over past 66 million years - @theU

    University of Utah

  8. Carbon Dioxide Through Time | EARTH 103: Earth in the Future

    Penn State University EARTH 103

  9. Paleo CO₂

    Paleo CO₂

  10. NASA Graph of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Rise | U.S. Geological Survey - USGS.gov

    U.S. Geological Survey - USGS.gov

+ 4 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

CO2Earth

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