Friday, Jul 24, 2026 The claims desk. Receipts included. POWERED BY LENZ
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SCIENCE

The Claim

The number of avalanches in the Alps has increased significantly in 2026 compared to previous years, and this increase is attributed to climate change.

The Short Version

The claim is not supported by the available evidence. No Alps-wide data shows a significant increase in avalanche numbers in 2026. The only quantitative indicator — roughly 105 fatalities in the 2025–26 season — is described by official sources as in line with the long-term average of ~100. The strongest peer-reviewed research on Alpine avalanches and climate change projects a net reduction in total avalanche activity under warming, with only a compositional shift toward more wet-snow events. The claim overstates both the trend and the attribution.

Caveats

  • No Alps-wide 2026 avalanche frequency dataset exists in the evidence; fatality counts are not a valid proxy for avalanche numbers, as they depend heavily on human exposure patterns.
  • The best peer-reviewed science (The Cryosphere, 2024) projects a net decrease in total Alpine avalanche activity under climate warming, not an increase — though it does identify a shift toward more wet-snow avalanches.
  • The 2025–26 fatality total (~105) is explicitly characterized by official and expert sources as within the long-term historical average (~100), not as a significant increase.

The Receipts

  1. Fatalities - EAWS

    European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS)

  2. Impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps

    Copernicus.org (The Cryosphere)

  3. Changes in snow avalanche activity in response to climate warming in the Swiss Alps

    EGUsphere [preprint]

  4. Colorado avalanche educators warily eyeing declining numbers of fatalities despite increasing traffic

    Colorado Sun

  5. Avalanche Deaths This Winter: Serious — But In Line with Historical Averages

    Mountain Tactical Institute

  6. Climate change is creating more dangerous avalanches - The Week

    The Week

  7. Record Snowfall in the French Alps—So What About Global Warming?

    SnowBrains

Filed Under

Alpsavalanchesclimate change

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