The Short Version
This claim oversimplifies a genuinely mixed picture. At the individual and task level, AI coding tools deliver measurable productivity gains — 30-55% faster task completion in controlled settings and hours saved weekly. However, at the organizational level, delivery metrics like DORA remain largely flat, review queues have ballooned, and one rigorous RCT found experienced developers were actually 19% slower. Even the most skeptical multi-study synthesis acknowledges ~10% organizational gains. Saying tools "do not significantly improve" productivity ignores real individual-level improvements while overstating organizational-level stagnation.