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Familial DNA searches can misidentify distant relatives as first-degree relatives.

The Claim

Scientific studies show that the risk of misidentification from partial DNA matching in familial DNA searching is very low.

Verified by Lenz ·

The Short Version

The claim overstates what the literature shows. Some studies do find extremely low false-positive rates for one narrow error type: unrelated people being flagged as close relatives under strict methods. But familial searching also produces meaningful misidentification risks in other important scenarios, especially confusing distant relatives with first-degree relatives, so the blanket “very low” characterization is not supported.

Caveats

  • The phrase “very low” is only defensible for certain protocols and a specific error type, not for familial searching overall.
  • Distant relatives can be misclassified as close relatives at nontrivial rates, which materially affects real-world investigative risk.
  • Error rates depend on thresholds, marker sets, database composition, and population structure, so results are not universally transferable.

The Receipts

  1. Familial DNA searching for identifying missing and unidentified persons: scientific, ethical and governance considerations

    Taylor & Francis Online

  2. Human-Genetic Ancestry Inference and False Positives in Forensic Familial Searches

    PubMed Central (PMC)

  3. OSAC 2021-S-0029 Standard for Familial DNA Searching

    National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) / OSAC

  4. Familial DNA Database Search System

    Office of Justice Programs (NIJ grant report)

  5. Erin Murphy co-authors report on efficacy of familial DNA searches

    NYU School of Law

  6. The Flaws of Familial DNA Matching

    Pacific Standard

  7. The Influence of Relatives on the Efficiency and Error Rate of Familial Searching

    PLOS ONE / PubMed Central

  8. Familial Searching utilising the National Forensic DNA Database of South Africa for missing person and unidentified human remains investigations

    PubMed Central

  9. How the Probability of a False Positive Affects the Value of DNA Evidence

    Journal of Forensic Sciences (PDF hosted by University of Ottawa)

  10. Familial searching

    Forensic Science International: Genetics (via CEAD PDF host)

+ 15 more sources — see the full list on Lenz

Filed Under

Familial DNA Searching

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